top of page
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/c837a6_3f53cdbff83b47b19a97bd35c767333c~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_978,h_550,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/c837a6_3f53cdbff83b47b19a97bd35c767333c~mv2.jpg)
Seasonality Trends
In R, Prophet was used to create an additive regression model to forecast 365 days past the end of the modeled time series
Seasonality data was analyzed using the prophet_plot_components() function
Datasets
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 5 years
Bitcoin (BTC) 5 years
United States Dollar (USD) 5 years
Overview of Analysis in
Prophet
![prophet_description.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_2acf10e0c61f44b3840fb78c2902d39f~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_600,h_471,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/prophet_description.png)
Results
Graphical visualizations show the discrepancies in seasonality between USD, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500. The graphs identify unique differences between all of the assets listed above, with USD and the S&P being much more similar. This could be due to differences between regulated and deregulated asset classes.
Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin Seasonality
![bitcoin_forecast.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_60658c73d7ae4900bcbe2795605adccb~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_600,h_505,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/bitcoin_forecast.png)
Bitcoin Seasonality
![bitcoin_seasonality.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_344698db405c4e4b8bab8e4b928274ac~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_656,h_553,al_c,lg_1,q_90,enc_avif,quality_auto/bitcoin_seasonality.png)
S&P500 Forecast
S&P500 Seasonality
![spy_forecast.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_32b4beefaa2b4a37832661f69becfff4~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_666,h_560,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/spy_forecast.png)
![spy_trending_seasonality.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_6d73d12acbb542058acf0a43245429be~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_656,h_553,al_c,lg_1,q_90,enc_avif,quality_auto/spy_trending_seasonality.png)
S&P500
US Dollar Forecast
![usd_forecast.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_3cfb82096e20445a8e8928d2e4c4c938~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_728,h_612,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/usd_forecast.png)
US Dollar Seasonality
![usd_seasonality.png](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b49bcb_f07d1007b664495ea786df40b592603c~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_656,h_553,al_c,lg_1,q_90,enc_avif,quality_auto/usd_seasonality.png)
US Dollar
bottom of page